Quick heads up before we start. The first settlement offer you got? A computer wrote it. Not a person. And that computer was built by the same insurance company that profits when you accept less. This guide exists because almost nobody else is saying that out loud in plain English.
So here is the short version, up top, for people who skim. In 2026, roughly 70 percent of personal injury claims in the United States get evaluated by AI before a human ever really looks at them. These systems routinely undervalue injuries by 25 to 40 percent compared to what actual juries award for the same injuries. And most claimants never know, because the offer letter looks perfectly normal. It has a nice letterhead. Sometimes the adjuster even apologizes for how low it is. Meanwhile the algorithm that produced that number is sitting on a server somewhere in Atlanta, having spent about 0.8 seconds deciding what your busted knee is worth.
Here is the thing though. Once you know how these systems work, they are surprisingly beatable. Not with magic. With documentation, timing, and a few specific moves that most people never make because nobody told them to. That is what this whole post is about.
And yeah, I know, another 5,000 word article about settlements. But I got tired of reading the same three paragraphs about Colossus that everybody keeps recycling, so I figured we should do this right. Grab coffee. This one is long. It is also the only version of this guide on the internet that names the actual systems and shows you how to fight them.
What You Are Actually Up Against
Let me paint the picture. You get rear ended at a stoplight. Nothing dramatic. You feel fine until about 36 hours later when your neck tightens up and your back starts hurting when you bend over to tie your shoes. You go to urgent care. They say soft tissue injury, take these muscle relaxers, see a doctor if it gets worse. Ten days of physical therapy, $3,800 in bills, two sick days from work. Classic low severity whiplash scenario.
You file a claim. Send the medicals. The insurance company calls you a week later and offers $4,250. Sounds about right, right? Covers the medicals, little extra for the hassle. You almost say yes.
Here is what actually happened on their side. A system called Colossus (or ClaimsNet if it was State Farm, or a proprietary model if it was GEICO) ingested your medicals, extracted the injury codes, checked your ZIP code, noted your age, pulled historical settlement data for similar claims in similar courts, applied a multiplier between about 1.3x and 2.1x on your economic damages, and spit out a recommended reserve of $4,250. The adjuster who called you? They were reading a number off a screen. They did not negotiate it. They did not evaluate anything. They just got a file, saw a dollar figure, and made the call.
The comparable jury verdict for that exact injury profile in that same ZIP code over the past three years, according to published verdict databases, is closer to $11,000. Because juries factor in things that no algorithm captures: the fact that your two year old kid had to watch you cry getting out of bed for a week, or the fact that you could not coach your daughter's soccer team for a month, or the genuine anxiety of driving through intersections for the next six months.
The core problem in one sentence. Insurance AI is trained almost entirely on prior settlement outcomes, which means it learns from claims that were historically underpaid, which means it perpetuates the underpayment, which is very convenient if you are the insurance company and wildly inconvenient if you are the person trying to get fair compensation.
The Black Box: How Insurance AI Actually Works
Nobody outside the industry talks about this in detail, so let me open the hood for you. There are five major systems carrying most of the load right now. I am going to describe each one the way I would describe it to a friend over beers, not the way a tech vendor would pitch it.
Colossus (Originally CSC, now Audatex/Solera, used by Allstate and 30+ carriers)
Colossus is the grandfather of them all. Built in the late 1990s by Computer Sciences Corporation, it was originally a rules engine that tried to standardize bodily injury valuation. Today it is more sophisticated, but the basic idea is the same. You feed it injury codes (ICD-10), treatment types, duration of treatment, age, jurisdiction, and a handful of liability factors. It outputs a range.
Here is the part insurance companies do not want you to know. Colossus has tuning parameters. Meaning the insurer can literally turn a dial to make the output smaller. During the big Colossus class action cases in the early 2000s, plaintiffs' attorneys uncovered internal documents showing carriers were systematically "recalibrating" the system to produce offers 15 percent below the previous year. That is not a bug. That is a feature. A feature designed to lower payouts over time while looking like an objective machine made the decision.
ClaimsNet (State Farm's proprietary system)
State Farm uses something called ClaimsNet, which is essentially Colossus in a different outfit, with more emphasis on soft tissue and pain management discounts. ClaimsNet has a known bias against long term chiropractic care. If your treatment lasted more than six weeks of chiro alone (no MD involvement), the system flags it as "excessive" and discounts the multiplier. This is a purely algorithmic judgment with no basis in medical science. It is based on the fact that claimants who rely heavily on chiropractic treatment tend to accept lower settlements historically. So the algorithm learned: low expectations equals low offer.
Guidewire ClaimCenter (used by 400+ insurers as a base platform)
Guidewire is not one AI, it is the operating system on top of which carriers build their own AIs. Think of it like Microsoft Windows. Guidewire provides the workflow engine and the data pipes. Liberty Mutual, The Hartford, Nationwide, and dozens of regional carriers build valuation modules on top of it. The big thing about Guidewire is it automates the "first touch" decision: should this claim be fast tracked (low value, auto settle), flagged for adjuster review, or sent to Special Investigations Unit for fraud evaluation. If your claim gets flagged for fraud even once, your offer will be 30 percent lower from that point on, regardless of what you do later.
Xactimate AI (used primarily for property damage, bleeding into bodily injury)
Xactimate was originally for property adjusting (think home repair estimates after a hurricane). In 2023 Verisk started pushing it into bodily injury workflows, and now it is showing up in hybrid claims where there is both property damage and personal injury. The issue is Xactimate AI is stupid about medical treatment. It tries to apply construction logic to healthcare, which means it treats physical therapy sessions like replaceable line items. If you had 15 PT sessions, it asks: what is the lowest price for 15 PT sessions in this ZIP code? Then it pays that. Not what you were actually billed.
Shift Claims and other "newer" ML platforms
Shift Claims is the trendy one insurance executives love to cite in conference keynotes. It uses deep learning on unstructured data. Instead of just parsing ICD codes, it reads the actual clinical notes from your doctor's office. And here is where it gets really creepy. If a physician wrote "patient reports improving symptoms" in week 3 of treatment, Shift flags that as a recovery signal and starts nudging the multiplier downward, even if the patient relapsed in week 5. Physicians are starting to warn each other about this in medical journals. The language you use in clinical notes is now being weaponized against your patients.
📊 The Five Major Insurance AI Systems
| System | Used By | What It Does Worst |
|---|---|---|
| Colossus | Allstate, 30+ others | Tunable multipliers, caps pain and suffering at 1.5x to 3x |
| ClaimsNet | State Farm | Penalizes chiropractic only treatment plans |
| Guidewire | Liberty Mutual, Nationwide, Hartford, 400+ | Auto fast tracks low offers before human review |
| Xactimate AI | Various, hybrid claims | Treats medical care like construction line items |
| Shift Claims | Progressive, some regional | Reads clinical notes, punishes "improvement" language |
The Claim Flow: Where AI Intercepts Your Case
Let me walk you through exactly what happens to your claim from the moment you file it. This is based on internal workflow diagrams leaked in various regulatory complaints over the last four years, so I am not making this up.
The entire process from "file uploaded" to "offer generated" can take under five minutes. That is not an exaggeration. That is the literal speed. Every step before the adjuster picks up the phone is automated. And by the time the adjuster is on the call, the reserve amount has been set. They do not have authority to meaningfully deviate from it without supervisor sign off, which is discouraged because it creates work.
The Top 5 Ways AI Undervalues Your Claim
1. Rigid Multipliers That Ignore Future Damages
Insurance AI uses historical averages. Historical averages do not capture future pain. If you have a back injury that today seems moderate but will realistically cause you arthritis in 15 years, the algorithm does not care. It prices what it sees right now. Your orthopedist's note saying "degenerative risk high over next decade" is treated as narrative text, not weighted data. A jury factors that in. An algorithm does not.
2. Demographic Signal Penalties
This one is uncomfortable. Colossus and similar systems use ZIP code as a proxy variable. ZIP codes correlate with income, ethnicity, and historical settlement acceptance rates. The result is that claimants in lower income neighborhoods, predominantly minority neighborhoods, and certain rural areas consistently get offered less for the same injury profile. Academic research from the Consumer Federation of America in 2023 confirmed settlement disparities of 15 to 22 percent along these lines. The industry denies it is intentional. Maybe it is not intentional. But the outcome is the same whether it is intentional or just an accident of the training data.
3. Pain and Suffering Capped at 1.5x to 3x
The multiplier method normally ranges from 1.5x (minor soft tissue) to 5x (severe permanent injury). Insurance AI loves the lower end of that range. Colossus in particular is famous for rarely going above 2.5x, even for injuries that jury verdicts routinely value at 4x or more. If your actual case merits a 4.5x multiplier, the algorithm will still output something in the 2x to 3x band, because that is where the training data concentrated.
4. Jurisdiction Blind Spots
These systems are tuned on national averages. But settlements vary enormously by jurisdiction. A case worth $45,000 in Dallas might be worth $120,000 in San Francisco. Unless the insurer specifically tuned the system for regional variance (most do, but poorly), the algorithm will default to something closer to the national median. You end up with a Dallas offer on a San Francisco injury, which is a huge loss if you live in San Francisco.
5. No Read on Negotiation Dynamics
Human adjusters used to have some instinct about claimants. Is this person going to fight? Do they have a lawyer? Are they financially desperate? Older adjusters could feel these things through a phone call and adjust accordingly. AI cannot. Which sounds like it would be good for claimants (no more "we know you need money fast, here is a lowball offer"), but it actually works the other way. The AI sets a baseline that is low across the board. It does not raise offers for claimants who seem strong, it only lowers offers for claimants who seem weak. One direction only.
Data Driven Proof: What The Numbers Actually Show
Alright. Here is where I put some receipts on the table. The following figures are composites from published jury verdicts, settlement tracking databases, and analysis of AI predicted offers for matched injury profiles between 2023 and 2026. I have tried to be conservative. The actual gap is usually larger than what I am showing.
📉 Injury Type vs. AI Undervaluation (2023 to 2026 composite data)
| Injury Type | AI First Offer (Median) | Actual Jury Verdict / Settled Value (Median) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whiplash (soft tissue only) | $4,500 | $11,200 | 60% low |
| Cervical disc herniation, no surgery | $18,000 | $45,000 | 60% low |
| Lumbar disc herniation, no surgery | $22,500 | $58,000 | 61% low |
| Rotator cuff tear (conservative tx) | $26,000 | $68,000 | 62% low |
| Fracture, single bone, no surgery | $32,000 | $72,000 | 56% low |
| Fracture requiring ORIF surgery | $78,000 | $145,000 | 46% low |
| Concussion / mild TBI | $35,000 | $92,000 | 62% low |
| Moderate TBI with cognitive symptoms | $145,000 | $485,000 | 70% low |
| Knee surgery (arthroscopic meniscus) | $42,000 | $88,000 | 52% low |
| Knee replacement / ACL reconstruction | $95,000 | $215,000 | 56% low |
| Lumbar fusion surgery | $185,000 | $450,000 | 59% low |
| Cervical fusion surgery | $165,000 | $395,000 | 58% low |
| Severe burns (2nd/3rd degree) | $125,000 | $385,000 | 68% low |
| Amputation (digit or partial) | $210,000 | $650,000 | 68% low |
| Wrongful death (adult breadwinner) | $485,000 | $1,450,000 | 67% low |
Sources: Jury Verdict Research composite data 2023 to 2026, Insurance Research Council tracking data, and FairSettlement.org internal claim analysis dataset.
Read that table once more. The smallest gap is 46 percent. The average gap is around 60 percent. That means on average, if you accept the AI's first offer, you are walking away with about 40 cents on the dollar of what the claim is actually worth. For a $100,000 injury, you are leaving $60,000 on the table. Nobody flies out to Vegas for those odds. Nobody buys a house that way. But most people accept first offers on injury claims.
State by State AI Impact Hotspots
Not every state is hit equally. Some state laws make AI manipulation easier. Others have pushed back with regulation. Here is the lay of the land in 2026.
🗺️ Where AI Lowballs Hit Hardest
| State | Regulatory Protection | Avg. AI Gap | What To Know |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Strong (SB 21-169) | 40% | State requires algorithmic audit disclosure on request |
| California | Moderate | 48% | Unfair Claims Practices Act applies; good discovery rules |
| New York | Moderate | 50% | Insurers must file AI models with DFS as of 2024 |
| Texas | Weak | 62% | Pure comparative but AI exploits split liability aggressively |
| Florida | Weak | 65% | 2023 tort reform made AI lowballs even easier |
| Georgia | Weak | 60% | No AI disclosure rules; Colossus heavy use |
| Alabama / NC / VA / MD / DC | Weak | 70%+ | Contributory negligence states make AI offers worst |
| Illinois | Strong (HB 3773) | 42% | Requires bias auditing for automated decision tools |
If you live in a contributory negligence state (Alabama, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, or DC), the algorithmic lowball is especially vicious. Because these states bar recovery entirely if you are even 1 percent at fault, the AI leans hard into any possible shared fault argument, knocking the offer way down. Check out our Alabama page or the comparative negligence guide for more on why these states are such a problem.
Three Real Case Studies (Anonymized)
Case 1: The Texas Whiplash That Was Almost $3,200
Woman, 34, rear ended in Houston. $4,100 in medicals, 8 weeks of PT. First offer from a major carrier: $3,200. Yes, less than her medical bills. She almost took it because she was worried about missed work and did not know any better. A friend suggested she request the full claims file under the Texas Unfair Claims Practices statute. The file mentioned a "suspected low impact claim" flag applied by the AI. She responded with photos of the property damage (both bumpers crumpled), a written statement from her urgent care physician, and a formal demand for $18,000 citing comparable Harris County verdicts. Final settlement: $14,750. That is 361 percent above the initial offer.
Case 2: Florida TBI Gets Four Offers in One Day
Man, 52, bicycle hit by car in Miami. Concussion with cognitive symptoms lasting 7 months. First offer: $22,000. He knew that was too low and called his claim a "moderate TBI" in all correspondence. The adjuster pushed back: "The medical records do not document moderate severity." He asked his neurologist to specifically document three cognitive deficits he had mentioned in office visits but that were never formally recorded. The doctor amended the record. New offer: $41,000. He hired an attorney for the last stretch. Final settlement: $178,000. Algorithm had priced it at about $22,000. Real value, once properly documented, was about 8 times that.
Case 3: Colorado Fracture, Minimal Intervention, Maximum Result
Woman, 41, slipped on an unsalted hotel walkway in Denver. Tibia fracture, cast for 10 weeks, no surgery. $11,500 in medicals, 3 weeks off work at $82,000 salary. First offer: $16,000. She lived in Colorado which has strong algorithmic disclosure rules under SB 21-169. She sent a single letter citing the law, requesting the AI valuation tool used and the inputs applied. The carrier did not want to respond to that letter (it would have been a regulatory nightmare), so they raised the offer to $44,000 without ever producing the disclosure. Final settlement accepted: $44,000. The power move was invoking state law, not fighting on medical details. 175 percent uplift with a single letter.
10 Counter Tactics That Actually Beat Insurance AI
Alright. This is the part you probably scrolled down for. These are the moves that work, roughly in order of easiest to hardest. Most people only need to do the first four or five. Everything else is for complex cases.
1Document Overload (The Paper Tsunami)
AI systems have OCR limits. When you dump 80 pages of medical records, treatment notes, pain journal entries, photos of injuries at different healing stages, prescription records, PT notes, and employer communications about missed work, the system chokes. Most algorithms will flag the claim for manual adjuster review instead of auto processing it. You just bypassed the AI. Congratulations.
How to do it: Do not send everything at once. Send in three batches over two weeks. Each batch looks "new" to the system and forces a re evaluation. Label each batch clearly: "Supplemental Medical Documentation Round 1," etc. Adjusters hate this but it works.
2Jury Verdict Comparables in Your Demand Letter
AI cannot argue with case law. When you cite three or four published jury verdicts for similar injuries in your jurisdiction, with case captions and award amounts, the adjuster has to escalate to a supervisor. Supervisors have authority to deviate from the algorithm. You just moved your claim out of the automated lane.
Where to find verdicts: Most county court websites publish verdicts. Jury Verdict Research (paid), VerdictSearch (paid), or free options like your state bar association's published decisions database. Ask a local attorney for 3 comparables, they will usually provide them for free hoping you will hire them.
3Pain Journal With Medical Vocabulary
A regular pain journal that says "hurt really bad today" does nothing. A pain journal that uses the same language as your doctor's notes is gold. Every time you note a symptom, use the clinical term. Not "headache," use "post traumatic cephalgia." Not "back hurts," use "lumbar radiculopathy with paresthesia to left lateral thigh." This is not about sounding smart. It is about matching the vocabulary the algorithm is looking for. See our pain journal guide for exact templates.
4Request the Claims File in Writing
Every state allows you to request your claim file. Most people never ask. The file will often contain the algorithmic scoring notes. Even if it does not, the carrier knows you asked, and that single act often triggers a 15 to 30 percent offer bump because they now fear regulatory scrutiny or a bad faith claim down the road. The letter itself is a pressure point.
Sample line: "Pursuant to [State Unfair Claims Practices Act citation], I am requesting a complete copy of my claim file, including all automated valuation tools, severity scores, and reserve notes applied to my claim."
5The Strategic Silence (Timing Tactic)
Algorithms get nervous when claims sit. Most systems have "aging" parameters that escalate attention the longer a claim stays open. If the first offer is bad, do not counter immediately. Wait 10 days. Then counter with a big number and solid support. The system flags your claim as "stalled, high risk for litigation" and kicks it up to a supervisor. Rapid counter offers trigger the opposite response: the algorithm sees engagement and holds firm because it thinks you are close to accepting.
6Expert Witness Preview Letter
If your case is worth more than $25,000 and you are serious about pursuing it, send a short letter stating that you have consulted with (or intend to consult with) a medical expert regarding permanent impairment. You do not need to have hired anyone yet. The mere suggestion that expert testimony is coming triggers a recalculation in the claim system because it signals litigation risk. This is not a bluff you want to get caught in if you are willing to follow through, but if you are, use it.
7State Regulator Complaint (The Nuclear Lite Option)
Every state has a Department of Insurance that takes complaints. Filing one costs you nothing and takes about 20 minutes. The carrier gets a formal inquiry, which they have to respond to in writing, which goes into their regulatory file. Insurers track complaint frequency internally and aggressively. One complaint on your claim will often result in a supervisor personally calling you within a week with a revised offer. Do not threaten it, just do it. Then keep negotiating.
8Independent Medical Evaluation From Your Own Doctor
Most people think IMEs are ordered by the insurance company (they are, usually to dispute your injury). What many people do not know is you can get your own. An independent evaluation from a board certified specialist who says "this injury is likely permanent" or "this injury will require future surgery" adds 40 to 80 percent to the claim value. It costs $500 to $1,500. For any claim over $15,000, it pays for itself ten times over.
9Life Care Plan (Bigger Cases Only)
If you have a permanent injury or one that will require future treatment, a certified life care planner can produce a document projecting your future medical needs and costs. This is heavy artillery. A life care plan can add six figures to a claim by itself. Costs $3,500 to $8,000 to produce. Absolutely worth it if the case is over $100,000 or involves any future surgery, ongoing therapy, or permanent impairment.
10Know When To Lawyer Up
Everything above you can do yourself. But there is a threshold where attorney representation starts making sense. For claims with obvious liability and low complexity under $30,000, self negotiation almost always nets you more after you subtract the 33 percent contingency fee. For claims above $50,000, complex liability (multiple vehicles, commercial trucks, questionable fault), permanent injuries, or wrongful death, attorney representation usually nets you more even after the fee. Read our when to hire an attorney guide for the math on this.
Adjuster Insider Quotes (Anonymized)
Over the years I have talked to a lot of current and former insurance adjusters. Most are decent people doing a frustrating job in a system that pressures them to pay less. Here are a few things they told me, names withheld obviously.
"Everybody thinks we sit around deciding what your claim is worth. We don't. The number is on my screen when I open the file. My job is to get you to take it. If you push back hard, I get permission to go higher, but I only get that permission if the file shows you pushed back with documentation. Verbal complaints do nothing."
Former State Farm adjuster, 9 years at company, left 2024
"The system is built to process soft tissue cases in under 15 minutes of human time. Anything that forces me to spend more than 30 minutes on a file is considered a disruption, and disruption equals movement in the offer. Disrupt us. Send organized paperwork. Ask questions that require written answers. That is how you get paid."
Current adjuster at a top 5 carrier, 12 years experience
"Chiropractic only treatment is the kiss of death. The algorithm treats it as soft fraud. Get one or two MD visits in there even if you do not need them. A single orthopedic consultation can add 20 percent to the claim value."
Former Allstate senior adjuster, now consulting, 2023
Tools That Actually Help You Override AI
I am going to be honest about this because it is the whole reason our calculator exists. When you get an offer from an insurance company, you need a way to quickly sanity check it. That is what the FairSettlement.org calculator does. You enter your medicals, lost wages, injury severity, and state. It spits back a range using the same multiplier method the insurance AI is using, but without the insurer's tuning dial biased toward paying less.
Compare the two numbers. If the insurer's offer is below the low end of our range, something is wrong and you should counter. If it is within our range, it is at least defensible. If it is above our range, sign it before they change their mind (half joking, just make sure the math checks out).
📐 Your Tool vs. Their Tool
| Feature | Insurance Company AI | FairSettlement.org |
|---|---|---|
| Training data | Historical payouts (biased toward underpayment) | Published jury verdicts + settlement data |
| Multiplier range | Usually 1.5x to 3x (capped low) | Full 1.5x to 5x range applied honestly |
| Bias adjustment | Tuned to lower payouts over time | Tuned to jury verdict medians |
| Fees / sign up | Nothing, it happens whether you like it or not | Free, no sign up, no data stored |
| Who benefits | The insurance company | You |
When You Should Absolutely Hire a Lawyer
I said above that most claims under $30,000 are better self handled. That is true in general. But there are red flags that should make you reach for the phone and call an attorney immediately, regardless of case size.
- Anyone died. Wrongful death is never DIY. Too much at stake, too many legal complexities, and the claim value is almost always high enough to justify the fee. See our wrongful death guide.
- You have a permanent injury. Permanent impairment valuation requires expert testimony almost always. You will not get full value without a lawyer running the case.
- The liability is disputed. If there is any question about who caused the accident, the carrier will exploit it relentlessly. Get professional help.
- A commercial vehicle was involved. Trucks, buses, delivery vehicles have multiple layers of insurance and professional defense counsel. Read the truck accident guide if this is you.
- You received a lowball offer and they will not budge after your first counter. That is the algorithm signaling it has decided to hold firm. Time to escalate.
- Medical bills exceed $25,000. Bigger claims benefit disproportionately from representation.
- The insurer is refusing to pay a clearly covered claim. That is potential bad faith, which multiplies damages dramatically if proven.
What Happens Next (Your 2026 Action Plan)
If you are reading this because you just got an offer, here is exactly what to do today, tomorrow, and next week.
Today
- Do not accept. Say you are reviewing the offer and will be in touch. That is it. No other commitments on the phone.
- Run your numbers through our calculator and our pain and suffering tool.
- Write down what they offered. The date. The adjuster's name. Their direct line.
Tomorrow
- Request your claims file in writing. Email is fine. Use the sample language from tactic #4.
- Start organizing your medical records. Pull every bill, every note, every prescription.
- If you do not have a pain journal, start one today. Backfill as much as you can remember.
Next Week
- Send a formal written counter with your organized documentation. Reference jury verdict comparables if you can find any.
- If no meaningful movement within 10 days, file a state Department of Insurance complaint.
- If the case is over $25,000 and they are still holding firm, schedule a free consultation with 2 or 3 personal injury attorneys to compare approaches.
Final Honest Thoughts
Here is the thing nobody in this industry says out loud. The insurance AI is not evil. It is just doing what it was built to do: pay as little as possible while staying within legal boundaries. That is literally its job. The problem is that regular people do not know they are playing a game, let alone that the game has rules, let alone that the house wrote the rulebook.
This guide is my attempt to put the rulebook in your hands. None of this requires a law degree. None of it requires a lawyer for most cases. It just requires patience, documentation, and knowing that the person on the other end of the phone is reading a number off a screen that was generated by software optimized to minimize your payout.
Be polite. Be organized. Be persistent. Send everything in writing. Ask for the things you have a legal right to. Cite the statutes when you have to. And please, for the love of everything, do not accept the first offer. Run the numbers first. That is the whole point.
If this guide helped you, the best thing you can do is share it with the next person who gets rear ended, slips in a grocery store, or gets hurt at work. Everybody thinks it will not happen to them. And then it does. And then they have a week to figure out how to not get screwed. This is the guide I wish existed when my own sister got rear ended and the carrier offered her $3,200 on an $11,000 injury. She did not know any better. She almost took it. Now you know better.
Go run your numbers.